What your State Pension forecast is really telling you about missing years

The letter that prompts most people to look is not about pensions at all. A payslip shows a gap after a career break, a relative mentions they paid to “top up” their record, or a colleague retires on less than they expected. Then comes the evening at the kitchen table, signing in to GOV.UK and staring at a forecast figure that looks precise but explains very little.

That figure is built one tax year at a time. Knowing how it is built is the difference between paying for years that will not help and spotting the ones that might.

What the forecast actually shows

The GOV.UK “Check your State Pension forecast” service shows how much State Pension you could get, when you can get it, and whether you can increase it. You can also see it through the HMRC app. It is for people who have not yet claimed; if you already receive your State Pension, or have deferred it, contact the Pension Service instead.

If you would rather not use the online service, the Future Pension Centre (0800 731 0175, Monday to Friday, 8am to 6pm) can post a forecast to you, or you can send form BR19. Both options are for people whose State Pension age is more than 30 days away.

How qualifying years build the figure

For the 2026/27 tax year, the full rate of the new State Pension is £241.30 a week. The basic arithmetic rests on qualifying years:

• You need 10 qualifying years on your National Insurance record to get any new State Pension at all.
• If your record starts after April 2016, you need 35 qualifying years for the full rate.
• If you were “contracted out” before April 2016 (you and your employer paid more into a workplace pension and less into the State Pension), you will usually need more than 35 qualifying years to reach the full rate.

A year counts if you were working and paid National Insurance, received National Insurance credits (for example while unemployed, ill or caring), or paid voluntary contributions. Our piece on why the State Pension increase looks different from one payment to the next explains how the annual uprating feeds through.

Why gaps appear in ordinary working lives

Gaps are rarely dramatic. GOV.UK lists the common causes: being employed on low earnings, being unemployed without claiming benefits, or being self-employed with small profits. Time spent living abroad can also leave years incomplete.

The separate “Check your National Insurance record” service shows your contributions and credits up to the start of the current tax year, marks the years that do not count, and tells you whether paying would help, how your forecast would change and what it would cost. It does the sum for your own record, which beats any rule of thumb.

Check for credits before paying anything

GOV.UK advises checking whether you are eligible for National Insurance credits before deciding to pay voluntary contributions. Credits fill gaps without any payment. They can come from claiming certain benefits, from caring, and in some families from looking after a grandchild under 12, which we cover in the grandparents who can earn National Insurance credits for childcare.

It is also worth knowing that voluntary contributions do not always increase the State Pension. GOV.UK gives being contracted out as one example. That is why the official advice is to check the forecast, or speak to the Future Pension Centre, before paying.

What a missing year costs to fill in 2026/27

Most people filling gaps pay Class 3 voluntary contributions. For 2026/27 the rate is £18.40 a week. The cheaper Class 2 rate, £3.65 a week, is only open to certain self-employed people and a few specific roles.

There is a wrinkle on rates. If you pay Class 3 for either of the previous two tax years, you pay the original rate for those years: £17.45 a week for 2024/25 and £17.75 a week for 2025/26. For earlier years, you pay the current 2026/27 rate.

Assumes Karen, 59, has a straightforward post-2016 record below 35 years, was not contracted out, and has no credits available for the gap year. A real record can differ; the official service shows the actual cost and effect.

The six-year limit, and the window that has closed

Under the standard rule, you can only pay voluntary contributions for the past 6 years, and the deadline is 5 April each year. GOV.UK’s own example: you have until 5 April 2032 to fill a gap in the 2025/26 tax year. Working back the same way, a gap in 2020/21 has a deadline of 5 April 2027.

For a few years there was a wider window: older gaps going back to April 2006 could be filled under an extended deadline that finally ran to 5 April 2025. That deadline has passed, and GOV.UK now describes only the six-year limit, so older articles about the “2006 to 2016” option are out of date.

The rules also changed from 6 April 2026 for people who live or work abroad, or have done so, following the Autumn Budget 2025. Anyone in that position should read the GOV.UK section for people abroad.

Worth knowing

Checking your forecast and record is free. If you do pay, use only the GOV.UK services or official helplines; no third party is needed.

Who should look closely, and what to check

A forecast deserves a careful read if any of these apply:

• You took a career break, worked part-time on low earnings, or had a spell of self-employment with small profits.
• You lived or worked abroad for part of your career.
• You were contracted out before April 2016 and your forecast sits below the full rate.
• You are within a few years of State Pension age, with fewer working years left to fill the record.

1. Sign in to the GOV.UK forecast service or the HMRC app and note the figures.
2. Open your National Insurance record and list the years marked as not full.
3. Check whether credits could cover any of those years before thinking about payment.
4. Note the deadline for each gap year under the six-year rule.
5. If anything is unclear, ask the Future Pension Centre (or the Pension Service if you have reached State Pension age) whether paying would actually increase your pension.

If your income in retirement is likely to be low, it is also worth reading about why Pension Credit matters for far more than the weekly top-up, as it can change the picture.

Reading your forecast calmly

A forecast is a snapshot, not a verdict. Years still to come can fill gaps on their own, credits can fill others, and some gaps make no difference to the final amount. The official services show which of your years count, which can be filled, at what cost and by when. One careful read is usually enough to decide whether to do anything at all.